What hourly electricity and hydrogen prices do the TYNDP 2026 scenarios (National Trends+, June 2026 draft) give when run in another model, at least cost and with perfect foresight? And where do the gaps to the prices published by ENTSO-E come from?
The page compares our price duration curves with the NT+ ones in 2030, 2035 and 2040, shows the cloud of the 30 PECD 2026 climate years (the French 2035 q90 ranges from 41 to 121 €/MWh depending on the year), and the diagnostics that explain the gap. The prices on the page are our model’s; TYNDP curves are drawn for comparison only.
The interactive page
A self-contained page, in French and English, version 2026.10.1-draft: findings, method, duration curves at the TYNDP point and on the 17 gas price × demand combinations, cloud of the 30 climate years, diagnostics, assumptions of each scenario, downloads and a package to redo the calculations.
Open the interactive page in its own tab
What the case does not say
- Prices are marginal costs of a least-cost model with perfect foresight, not market prices.
- NT+ is a draft; prices will change with the final version.
- 16 zones: NO, SE, IT, DK and UK are aggregated.
- For the 27 climate years without NT+ outputs, demand is rebuilt from temperature.
Code
The code, the frozen data and the assumptions are in the public repository energycommons, etage1-tyndp2026 2026.10.1-draft.
To redo everything:
# paquet energycommons etage1-tyndp2026/2026.10.1-draft : repro/scenarios/<scénario>/REFAIRE.md
zstd -dc <paquet>/repro/code/etude-<commit>.tar.zst | tar -x && cd etude-<commit>
zstd -dc <paquet>/repro/entrees/<jeu>.tar.zst | tar -x -C data/t26d/<jeu>/<année>
snakemake -s workflow/Snakefile1 --profile profiles/european_energy_system \
--config config_workflow=<config.workflow.yaml> --cores 8 <cible dual.nc>
Sources
- TYNDP 2026 Scenarios, ENTSO-E & ENTSOG (draft, June 2026), CC BY 4.0
- POMMES, code source (GitLab PERSEE)
- Our price series (energycommons, CC BY 4.0)
Case code and data under the MIT licence; texts and figures under CC BY 4.0; input data remain under their producer’s licence.